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[摘要] :
許多學者研究發現,災變是許多爭議性高之政策變遷的催化劑,但除此之
外,災變究竟如何影響政策制訂方向還未被仔細檢驗,例如:不同國家之政策制
定者面對相同的災變,其政策回應到底是相同還是不同?本研究使用敘事政策分
析法(NPA)來比較多國在2011 年福島核災後核能政策走向的相異,共有六國在
本研究中被分析:美國、法國、印度、瑞士、台灣與義大利,前三國在災後並沒
有顯著核能政策變遷,後三國則在災後經歷核能政策改變。
此研究發現,災變並不總像過去研究發現的必為政策帶來變遷,許多政策縱
使在經過災變後仍是停滯,政策學習也不一定是必然。
[英文摘要] :
Many scholars argue that a crisis can serve as a catalyst to prompt a previously
controversial policy change. However, many of the effects of a crisis on policy changes
or policy intractability remain uninvestigated. Do policy-makers in different countries
react similarly or differently to the same crisis? This paper uses a narrative policy
analysis to conduct comparative case studies to examine how the 2011 Fukushima
nuclear explosion affected nuclear energy policies in different polities. Six cases are
selected: the United States, France, India, Switzerland, Taiwan and Italy. Whereas the
first three countries listed do not exhibit nuclear policy changes in the post-crisis
landscape, the latter three have experienced a policy reversal.
This research finds that crises do not always serve as a catalyst to induce policy
changes as conventional wisdom predicts. Many policies exhibit its intractability even
after a major crisis whereas policy learning is not automatic neither.