文藻外語大學W-Portfolio

Complexity- The Emerging Science at Edge and Order

100學年度第一學期期中讀書心得報告
繳交日期: 年 月 日
圖書編號 978-0671872342 書名 Complexity-The Emerging Science at Edge and Order of Chaos
作者 M. Mitchell Waldrop 出版社 Simon and Schuster;1st edition (September 1, 1993)
姓名 Gabriela Gondokusumo 班別 UT2A 學號 1099212051
一、 請簡述你認為這本書中最重要的一個人及這個人提出的理論為何?
Brian Arthur and the Theory of Increasing Returns

In my opinion, the most important person with his theory is Brian Arthur. Because, unlike the old economics theory of decreasing returns, Arthur showed that the unstable state of the economy, is full of changes and is leading to increasing returns so that people would continue to lead, and people behind will be left even more, and these are advantages of the original people who become stronger, which is a positive feedback concept. The economics theory of increasing returns, emphasizes to the future direction of development, and also to help economists, biologists and physicists to understand the world of chaos, turmoil, and the mystery of self-organization.

二、請以「理論─用途─舉列說明」的書寫格式,寫出五個實例以證明你可以運用這本書內容所提的理論。
1. The Theory of Increasing Returns ─ input costs, decrease with the increase in production, often used in high-tech at all levels ─ e.g. Microsoft spent huge funds to develop the initial version of Microsoft Windows, but made a second software in an extremely odd, low cost .
2. The Theory of Increasing Returns ─ causing many people to take the advantages ─ QWERTY keyboard row of the keyboard is not the most efficient method, in fact, it is especially designed to slow typing speed. An engineer named Christopher Scholes designed the QWERTY layout in 1873 specifically to slow typists down; the typewriting machines of the day tended to jam if the typist went too fast. But then the Remington Sewing Machine Company mass-produced a typewriter using the QWERTY keyboard, which meant that lots of typists began to learn the system, which meant that other typewriter companies began to offer the QWERTY keyboard, which meant that still more typists began to learn it, et cetera, et cetera. To them that hath shall be given, thought Arthur-increasing returns. And now that QWERTY is a standard used by millions of people, it's essentially locked in forever.

3. The Theory of Increasing Returns─ the stronger gets stronger and the weaker gets weaker─ the Beta versus VHS competition in the mid-1970s. Even in 1979 it was clear that the VHS videotape format was well on its way to cornering the market, despite the fact that many experts had originally rated it slightly inferior to Beta technologically. How could this have happened? Because the VHS vendors were lucky enough to gain a slightly bigger market share in the beginning, which gave them an enormous advantage in spite of the technological differences: the video stores hated having to stock everything in two different formats, and consumers hated the idea of being stuck with obsolete VCRs. So everyone had a big incentive to go with the market leader. That pushed up VHS's market share even more, and the small initial difference grew rapidly. Once again, this is one of the examples of increasing returns.

4. The Theory of Increasing Returns─ Moreover, these technological webs can undergo bursts of evolutionary creativity and massive extinction events, just like biological ecosystems. ─ Say a new technology like the automobile comes in and replaces an older technology, the horse. Along with the horse go the smithy, the pony express, the watering troughs, the stables, the people who curried horses, and so on. This process is an excellent example of what he meant by increasing returns: once a new technology starts opening up new niches for other goods and services, the people who fill those niches have every incentive to help that technology grow and prosper. Moreover, this process is a major driving force behind the phenomenon of lock-in: the more niches that spring up dependent on a given technology, the harder it is to change that technology-until something very much better comes along.

5. The Theory of Artificial Life ─ Using a computer to emulate the biological evolution of the basic methods and life itself ─ scientists use computers to capture the abstract model, and use the model to do experiment.

二、 請用200個字寫出你看完本書後的感受。
The Complexity- The Emerging Science at Edge and Order of Chaos book is a really interesting book. It is unique and filled with a bit of philosophy. I have only read once a book with the same genre like “Complexity”, which was “Sophie’s World”. But I have to admit, now that I am older, I can understand “Complexity” better. It is filled with a lot of complex things in this world and it helps me to clear things out. It has given me a new point of view and of course, knowledge. This book makes me think, What are we doing in this life? What are our purposes in life? Why this structure? This book explained a lot of theory and it made me come to my senses. I began to think a lot and although I am unable to express all of my thoughts in this article but I am glad to say that I have changed to be a better person. I have changed to be a more knowledgeable person.

新增時間 : 2011-10-31 22:53:13